Arsenal Transfer Blog
2024-05-20
Arsenal Transfer Files: Who to Target for their Midfield?
Arsenal’s season came to a close this past weekend with the Gunners taking second place in the Premier League for the second year in a row and making the quarterfinals of the Champions League. Reports suggest that the club will get roughly 200M euros for their placement in the PL, and 91M euros for their UCL campaign, adding up to about 291M euros worth of prize money for their season. That is not a bad haul for the club. Obviously this won’t all be put towards transfers, but Arsenal are set to be active in the transfer market once again to try and finally push them over the edge to take home some hardware next season. The club is set to try and obtain reinforcements in each phase of play: a backup goalkeeper, a defender (most likely left sided), a midfielder, and an attacker. In January, it was thought that the club would look to splash the majority of their budget on a striker. I personally was never convinced that a proverbial true number 9 such as Victor Gyokeres or Alex Isak would be the answer to all of our problems, and now with the performances of Kai Havertz (15 G/A in his last 13 games), it looks like there may be more pressing issues to address.
Personally, I feel that Arsenal’s midfield should be the area that they focus heavily on. In 2024 when they began to really pick up form, the midfield mostly consisted of Thomas Partey playing the lone 6 role, with Declan Rice moving further up the pitch as the left sided 8, and Martin Ødegaard playing a hybrid 8/10 role on the right. There was a clear tactical shift from the 2022/23 season to this most recent one. In 2022/23, Oleksandr Zinchenko was a key player, meandering around the pitch on offense and creating overloads in positions to help breakdown opposing defenses. This worked brilliantly, as Arsenal broke their premier league goal record with 88 goals for, but also allowed 43 goals against, as Zinchenko’s offensive antics also left Arsenal open at the back. So to rectify this, Arteta played Zinchenko a lot less (2,136 minutes in 22/23, 1,725 in 23/24) and instead played center back hybrids Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jakub Kiwior at left back. The defense was much better this year with the change, only letting in 29 goals against. The introduction of Declan Rice was also helped improve the defense and the control Arsenal had on games.
The changes in the midfield went a long way in fixing some of Arsenal’s issues. However, even though Jorginho has just renewed his deal, he is still 32 years old, and Thomas Partey will be 31 while also having fitness issues. Combine that with the uncertain futures of Emile Smith-Rowe and Fabio Vieira, Arsenal are going to need at least one reinforcement in that area. For me there is a question of whether this signing should be a more attacking focused 8, or a more defensive focused 6. Last summer, It looked like Arteta went the 8 route with Kai Havertz, but that didn’t work, and Declan Rice has played well as an 8 this season. I will offer relatively brief analysis and opinions on a few prospects that fit a few different styles and provide my opinions on which direction Arsenal should go. Deeper dives will come for a few of the more heavily touted prospects.
True 6s
The following 2 players would be best suited to play the lone 6 role at the base of Arsenal’s midfield. The player in this role needs to be sound defensively; they need to be great tacklers while also reading the game as it comes to them to step into passing lanes to intercept passes after the 10 and 8 are bypassed. They need to be comfortable on both sides of the field and cover a lot of lateral ground. Offensively they need to be comfortable with the ball under pressure, often playing with their back to the play. They need to take in information and make the right decision in a split second.
Martin Zubimendi
One of the top defensive midfield prospects in club football at this moment, Martin Zubimendi is reported to be near the top of Arteta’s shortlist and for good reason. The Spanish midfielder is 25 years of age and has become on of the first names on the Real Sociedad team sheet. He fits the profile of player that Arsenal typically look for. There are many strengths to his game but a few weaknesses as well.
Offensive Ability
Zubimendi is a true Spanish 6, often drawing comparisons to Sergio Busquets. He is very composed under pressure and considered an elite passer.
His stats don’t really jump out as anything fantastic, but that is often the case with this type of player. Watching him play he’s very smooth and composed on the ball, but he makes his task look relatively simple, so if you aren’t paying attention, you may not realize what he’s doing. His task on offense is to connect the defense to the attack in buildup. He does so by taking up deep central positions.
As you can see here, he is surrounded by 4 defenders, but still he wants the ball. He is very adept at providing his teammates with a pressure release valve that, speaking as a former center back, is very appreciated. From here he either turns and passes forward himself, but more often he plays the way he faces and gives the ball to someone with more time and space. As most Spanish players are taught, he keeps it simple and tidy, using the pace of the ball to bypass defenders rather than dribbling or other more complicated methods.
Defensive Ability
Defensively his task is to breakup play and cut passing lanes as a protective layer in front of the center backs. At the base of the midfield, his main job is to intercept passes and slow down the opposition once they bypass the attackers. Here is an example:
The opposition has bypassed the forward line as well as the more attacking midfield players. Zubimendi is the last player before the defense to stop a developing attack for the opposition.
He does well, as the angle he takes forces the player wide and ultimately into a duel, which Zubimendi wins. His understanding of his position and space allow him to shut down attacks before they start. This is a quality Arteta no doubt loves; when his players lose duels, he gets upset and Zubimendi does well in his. He is in the 81st percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled.
The main downside to his play is his physicality. He is a silky player, not an imposing one, which could hinder his success in the premier league. Premier league games are also often faster paced, and in some of the more end-to-end games they have played in such as the UCL knockout ties against PSG, those games kind of passed him by. The thing that probably sinks this transfer is his reluctance to leave Spain. Arsenal have been rumored to be willing to pay the release clause of 60M euros, but Zubimendi has been tipped to go to Barcelona and is also happy at Sociedad. If he were to come to the Emirates, he could slot into the number 6 role that Partey currently plays with ease. He is certainly an option, but their are probably easier, and better deals to be done
Joao Neves
The next prospect is the latest gem from the Portuguese talent factory that is Benfica. Joao Neves is just 19 years of age, but you’d never know that watching him play. He is everywhere on the defensive side of the ball, making tackles and interceptions all across the pitch. Though he stands at just 5’9”, he imposes himself on every game.
Tactically, Benfica set up in a 4-2-3-1 most often, and Neves plays as part of a double pivot. This means that Neves has a more opportunity to wander forward and be more involved in the attack, as the second half of his pivot can cover him defensively. As you can see in the figure above, he is a very well-rounded player and has a tremendous ability to control games.
Offensive Ability
With the ball, Joao Neves is a very calm, tidy player. Benfica play very fluidly, so he pops up in different areas all across the pitch looking to get on the ball. He is a master at progressing the ball forward, either by dribbling or passing.
Here he uses spectacular awareness and technique to break two lines of defense a take almost every defender out of the play. His brain works fast, as he recognizes the run and the fact that he needs to play the pass one touch before the passing lane closes and his runner becomes offside, and executes it to perfection. Neves is an elite and high-volume passer as he is in the 98th percentile for passes attempted, and 99th for passes completed.
Neves often progresses the ball through his dribbling skills as well. He uses his diminutive stature to shield the ball and wriggle out of tight spaces. Below is an example of him using this skillset
This is the area of his game that I feel sets him apart from the likes of Martin Zubimendi. Instead of making a simple pass to just retain possession, Neves bursts forward into space to launch an attack. He is a very versatile player when it comes to progression on offense. He is often seen as a 6 due to his low G/A output, but I believe he has the skills to develop into an 8 if his next team needs him to.
Defensive Ability
Joao Neves does a lot of good work without the ball. Benfica are one of the highest possesion teams in Europe with an average possession of over 59%, which Neves plays a large role in. Outside of being a great passer, he is in the 99th percentile for tackles in the final 3rd, and 96th percentile for tackles won period. This means that when Benfica lose the ball, Neves is often able to win it back quickly and in dangerous areas. On of his weaknesses is 1v1 defending, as he is not proficient at tackling dribblers. His overall defensive game is very sound, but I do worry about his size in the Premier League
Overall, Neves is a great all around midfielder who appears to have room for growth as he gains more experienced. He is no doubt one of the top midfield prospects in the world and wherever he goes, I believe he has the tools to thrive. However, I don’t feel like it should be Arsenal. He’s a great player, but I feel that he would be redundant, as he is very similar to Declan Rice. Watching them both play they are both proficient dribblers, good passers, and have a unique ability to control and read games. They are both probably better suited for the 6 role, but have some traits and adaptability to play the 8. Declan Rice is a more experienced, premier league bred version of Joao Neves, and I think Arsenal should look at a player that would offer something different to the squad. Neves would also cost a sizable amount, as Benfica are stern in negotiations, and he will not be short of potential suitors.
The 8s
The next two players on the list are a little more versatile and have some question marks about where they would be played in the midfield, likely hinging on where Arteta envisions Rice playing. I believe that, based on what I saw at the end of the season and from what I understand about Arteta’s emphasis on controlling games, Rice will primarily lineup as the 8 next season. However, I am of the opinion he should lineup at the 6. When you watch Rice play, it is clear what his strengths are. One of his strengths is his ball carrying, as he can release pressure by going on one of his signature driving dribbles up the field as he winds through the opposition press. This is something he would be able to do much less as a 6. However, the biggest strength of his game is the way he understands it defensively. Granted he was playing on a much lower possession team, but in the 2022-2023 season, he was in the 93rd percentile for Interceptions and dribblers tackled. He was a man among boys at times the way he would pick off passes, make tackles, and just stop attacks single-handedly. While he could play the 8 and grow into a more offensive role, he is everything you need in a 6, and I still think that his best performances came in that role for Arsenal, even if the team wasn’t firing in all cylinders yet. Perhaps the coaching staff feels that Rice can develop certain skills required to play the 8, but I just don’t think it is where his skills are maximized, and these next two players I feel have some defensive shortcomings that Rice doesn’t have, while also having more to offer offensively.
Bruno Guimarāes
The next player on the list is one that Arsenal fans will no doubt be familiar with. Bruno Guimarāes is a 26 year-old Brazilian midfielder from Newcastle who would cost roughly 80M-100M British pounds to bring to the club. He has made an impression on many Arsenal fans (myself included) with his on-field antics and dirty play in recent memory. The midfielder is someone that Arteta likes, as he was heavily linked with a move to the Emirates back in January 2022 for 40M British pounds before signing with Newcastle. He has more than proven himself to be an asset in the premier league, and you know what you are going to get from him in the league, which is more than can be said for the previous two prospects. So is he the right fit for Arsenal?
Newcastle’s tactical setup and gameplan is quite different from Arsenal’s despite deploying a 4-3-3 as well. Guimaraes says he enjoys playing further up the pitch, but with the suspension of Sandro Tonali, he was often forced to play in the middle of their midfield 3. Newcastle like to play on the transition, going forward and long as quickly as possible. Their midfielders are tasked with covering a lot of ground, and they play quite fluidly, often popping up in different areas on the pitch, and they cover for each other. They don’t really look to possess the ball unless they are in the attacking third. Because of this their games often look a bit frantic, but this usually benefits them especially if the raucous crowd of St. James’s Park is behind them.
A report from David Ornstein back in May suggested that Arsenal have Bruno near the top of their list if they decide to recruit a 6, while also noting that he could play the 8. I personally believe his best position would be at the 8 for reasons I will delve into below.
Offensive Ability
Bruno’s biggest strengths with the ball are his dribbling and his passing. Clearly this is the type of midfielder that Arsenal are looking for, as every prospect on this list shares those traits. He has a great understanding of space and angles, allowing him to use delicate touches of the ball to remove defenders from his path. He is not the fastest player on the pitch, but uses his strength and guile to make these long dribbles forward. He has a great right foot for passing, and a nose for an incisive pass, as reflected by his 89th percentile in shot creating actions. It is rare that he operates as a 6 in the way that Zubimendi or Partey do. While he is good under pressure, he rarely uses his weaker left foot, which limits his effectiveness as a true 6 in my opinion.
I love this clip because I have visions of Martin Ødegaard slipping Saka the same type of pass and like to think of how much Martinelli might benefit from a passer of this caliber playing the 8 on his side. It’s a small detail, but the he hesitates at first to draw Mainoo in and then takes a slight tough around him just to change the angle, which shows a great understanding of space.
This pass shows just how deadly he can be in the final third. He floats a wonderfully weighted ball to the right winger for a chance on goal. In one pass he takes out 8 tightly packed defenders. This type of defensive setup is something that Arsenal see quite often, and this is the type of pass that Granit Xhaka had added to his locker (his assist to Jesus in the Brentford away fixture comes to mind). Although He definitely needs to work on his weak foot, there are no doubts about Bruno’s ability on the ball.
Defensive Ability
Bruno’s defensive ability worries me a bit if he were to play the 6. I hesitate to call him a 6 because it is almost as if each Newcastle midfielder is responsible for a horizontal area of the pitch rather than a traditional vertical one. What I mean by this is that when watching their games near the end of the season against Brentford and Brighton, he winds up pressing really high when the opposition plays it to their defensive midfielder. He loves to press players when they have their back to goal, and is really aggressive in doing so.
These are two instances where Bruno successfully wins the ball. However, the more common outcome of these aggressive tackles is a foul either because he goes in too hard, or because his athleticism fails him and he is forced to make a tactical foul. Sometimes the tactical-ness of the foul is quite questionable, as seen below
While the clip above is an extreme, it does expose a flaw in his game. He wouldn’t be asked to do quite this much pressing as a 6 at Arsenal, but I’d be worried about how much ground he’d have to cover. A lot of these errors are a result of him not being able to get to the opposition player fast enough. Partey already struggles with this sometimes which leaves fans frustrated. I personally had flashbacks of KDB outpacing Partey to open the scoring at the Etihad in 2023 analyzing his athleticism. He’s a good tackler, but I do not love his overall defensive game.
Overall, I think Bruno is a good player. An 80M pound player, maybe, but only if he were played as an 8, which he admits is where he likes to play. It just would not make sense to me to play someone with Bruno’s offensive ability at the 6, and Rice’s defensive ability at the 8. Throw in the fact that he’s kind of an asshole and might not be the perfect fit for the squad’s morale, I think there are better deals to be done. I promise that I’ll get to a player or two that I think would be great pieces of business for Arsenal, but I just don’t think this one would be. Once again I’ll reiterate that whatever Arteta and Edu decide is the right choice for the squad and I’ll be 100% behind it as they have given me no reason not to be, but I can remain skeptical until it’s official.
Frenkie De Jong
Up next is Frenkie De Jong. Currently playing for the finanical plagued Catalan giants Barcelona, FDJ is rumored to be available for sale this summer for around 70M pounds. The 27 year-old dutch player was highly touted to become one of the next great midfielders when he transferred out of Ajax in 2019, but he just has always remained surplus to requirements at FCB. Even for such an experienced player there is some confusion about where his best position is. He’s been tried a number of times by a number of coaches as a single pivot, but they all end up playing him elsewhere. Ronald Koeman, who has coached him for Barcelona and the Dutch national team, is convinced that Frenkie must be played in a double pivot to get the best out of him. While I don’t necessarily disagree, Arsenal don’t usually employ that strategy, so he’d have to be used in another way. Arteta could change his tactical setup, but I don’t see the benefit of him doing that for one player, and I doubt he would. According to the reliable @teamnewsandtix on Twitter, De Jong is a player Arteta loves, so he must have a plan for the player should they get him.
Offensive Ability
If you’ve watched football regularly, you most likely have some idea of what Frenkie De Jong is about. His ball retention is top notch and he has world class ability to cut open a defense via dribble or pass.
As you can see he is right up there with the elite passers on Arsenal and in the world in terms of progressive passing as pass completion. Some of the passes he completes are simply ridiculous and a joy to watch. Just looking at a few games and a few highlights there are endless examples to pick from.
